Bring on the Ashes!

If you're waiting as eagerly as me for the Ashes to begin, read on. The English media is understandably buoyant about their team's chances. The Aussies are under massive pressure, especially after failures against India and Sri Lanka. Yet pundits are split on who'll win: Ian Chappell reckons Australia should scrape through with a 2-1 win, while Shane Warne leads the pack of trojan horses within the Australian camp; of course, the English are cautiously optimistic about their chances.

As a neutral in this mouth-watering contest, I wondered whether one could pen down some definite indicators of what lies in store for us this winter:

1) Over 80% of Tests in Australia yield results, so the odds of a 2-1 win are rather improbable. Let's say at least four of the five Tests will end in a result.

2) Australia's batting is roughly as strong as England's. The only problem is that Ponting and Hussey are in decline, and Clarke and North have underperformed massively over the past year or so. Watch out though for the opening duo of Katich and Watson as well as the lower middle order batting of Brad Haddin. If either Usman Khawaja or Callum Ferguson plays later in the series, I think they'll do better than North in the No. 6 position. It is possible that the Aussie middle order will crumble now and then, but expect them to pile on over 400 on good batting pitches such as Adelaide and Sydney.

3) England's batsmen have been in good form this month. The media keeps asking questions of Cook and Pietersen, but I doubt if either of them will score less than their career averages in this series. For me, however, Strauss, Trott, and Collingwood hold the key to England's batting hopes. They are solid in defense yet refuse to get intimidated by good fast bowling. The lower order of Prior, Broad, and Swann looks good for at least 100 runs in each innings. Think of what happened at Lord's earlier this year. In my view at least, lower-order batting gives England a slight edge: faced with a total of 300-350, they can reasonably aim for 400-450 in their first innings.

4) Australia's bowlers seem eager to take on the Poms. A juicy pitch under overcast skies at the Gabba will be to their liking, so the toss will be crucial on Thursday. I expect Siddle and Johnson to do better than they did last year in England. Hilfenhaus and Bollinger are, however, the bowlers to watch out for. Both have been Australia's best and most consistent bowlers over the past year and a half. I am not too sure about Xavier Doherty, Steve Smith or even the beleaguered Nathan Hauritz. I expect the spinners to concede over a hundred runs in the first innings of each Test. Honestly, I don't expect the Australians to bowl out England for under 200 in any innings, and I do think we've seen how hard it is in recent times for the Aussies to pick up 20 wickets. Unless something change dramatically, I see good honest performances on the cards with the occasional burst, but no consistently series-altering spells from this attack.

5) England's bowlers, much like Australia's, will relish the pace and bounce at the Gabba and the MCG. For flatter tracks such as those in Sydney and Adelaide, Swann and Broad will hold the key to England's chances, especially when it comes to slicing through the middle order or polishing off the tailenders. Anderson is a fair-weather bowler, to my mind, and Steve Finn is an untested proposition. I worry that there isn't much back-up for these four in the post-Flintoff era. England's prospects of taking 20 Aussie wickets will depend as much on their matchwinners as their support bowlers. On livelier pitches, this won't be a problem, but I imagine tough passages of play in warmer, drier conditions when Ponting & Co. manage to get going. But all said and done, Swann's presence makes me favor England over Australia in terms of bowling.

6) Australia's performances at home since 2007 have been iffy. They won narrowly against India partly due to umpiring howlers from Steve Bucknor and chums. Then they trounced the Kiwis but lost to South Africa comprehensively. Last year, Chris Gayle nearly pulled off a drawn series for the lowly West Indies. And who knows what went wrong with Pakistan at Sydney this January? In the interim, Australia are no longer world conquerors abroad, but merely honest triers. On the surface, the record since 2007 at home reads: W 10 L 3 D 2. But no one is deceived by the string of victories against lesser teams. The Aussies are no pushovers, but they are definitely vulnerable.

7) England's away record has been pretty impressive recently. They won against South Africa and could so easily have beaten India at Chennai in 2008. The mini-setback against the West Indies is more than amply offset by strong performances against Bangladesh earlier this year. I'd take a close look at the South Africa series last winter for clues on how England play on hard, bouncy pitches. I wouldn't rule out stage fright for Anderson & Co., but this is certainly the best English team to arrive on Australian shores for a long time. Of course, they'd have lost to Australia in their prime under Waugh and Ponting, but this is a different challenge.

8) So, what's my prediction? Since I expect at least four results and a close series, I'd shortlist possible three results: 2-2 (if things get really close); 3-2 (if England manage to pip the Aussies at the post in a close series); 3-1 (if England romp home in Brisbane and beyond). Honestly, can Australia win two Test matches this summer? I'm not so sure unless something miraculous happens. Can England win three Tests? Yes, I'd say, watch out for Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney. So, I really doubt Ian Chappell's prediction of 2-1 in favor of Australia. There'll be more results for sure, and I don't think the Aussie bowlers are good enough to take 20 wickets for cheap on two occasions against a long, strong batting lineup.

In short, I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a 3-1 victory for the Poms!